No mystery really, if you look at the method the United States selects a President.
The United States does not use the popular vote, but the electoral college system where each state has so many electoral votes. To win the Presidency, you need 270. So, while the popular vote may hover close to 50-50, the electoral votes are much different.
Team Romney and the GOP are clinging to the hope that the Gallup Poll puts Romney and Obama even, but on Meet The Press, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/vp/49138589#49138589, Chuck Todd clearly shows Obama leading in many battle-ground states.
Iowa by +8; Colorado by +5; Wisconsin +5; Nevada +3; Ohio +7; Virginia +7; Florida +5; Michigan +15; and his own state he governed, he's behind.
So, we are currently at 243 electoral votes for Obama and 191 for Romney.
This means that the President needs just one state. If he picks up Florida, that puts him at 272. If you take Virginia and Ohio for the President, he winds up with 274.
The polls reflect economic optimism, as reported by the Wall Street Journal - not your typical liberal newspaper rag - that in August, only 36% said the economy would improve in 12 months, and now, that number is 42%. This is the best number in three years.
Granted, there are several weeks left in the campaign, but with Romney's abysmal campaign and one gaffe after another, the debates may be too little too late.
Romney challenge is not just preventing another foot-in-the-mouth statement, but it is imperative that he connects with the electorate without coming across as condescending. I imagine to a lesser extent, Ryan will have the same challenges when he faces Biden in the Vice-Presidential debates.